Carry Trades

That's a very simple way to put it but she's definately on to something.

I know for a fact that trading rooms and strategists currently have a plan to "scale people back into carry". Most cite the stock market and how it has finally turned higher. So, FX operations are once again looking for the same juicy trends that's been on offer since 2005. Only problem is, nobody knows if a new regime is upon us and so this particular strategy will fail immensely if everybody loads up again only to get slammed sometime in the fall/vinter.

What most people seem to miss right now is the state of the Japanese economy. It's quite awful, infact, it's been slowly deteriorating during the summer and some economists have increased the odds of a recession there. So, long JPY positions aren't a sure thing. My best idea is to stick with CHF. From both a risk-reduction standpoint and a slowing growth theme, CHF should do very well. Add to this that the SNB is nobody's bitch. Roth (along with BOE's King) are the only CB chiefs that you can respect these days and they'll fight inflation before bailing out speculators and creating massive moral hazards.

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